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Data of the day 6/10
50 → 72%

With fifty researchers on the same problem a double discovery is the most likely outcome: Merton's 'ripeness of time' as arithmetic.

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With 50 researchers on the same problem the multiple has a 72% probability

Illustrative model: each researcher has the same, independent probability of solving the problem. Move the sliders.

At least one discovery Multiple: at least two discoveries
0%25%50%75%100%020406080100
At least one discovery: 92% · multiple: 72% · the multiple passes 50% with 34 researchers

Own elaboration: binomial model with independent researchers. Not an empirical estimate.

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