COP31 opens in Antalya with tensions rising over phasing out fossil fuels and scaling finance for poorer nations, as US absence and missed 1.5°C goals weigh on talks.
Thousands of negotiators, corporate representatives, campaigners, and reporters have converged in Antalya, Turkey, for the UN’s annual climate summit—an often tense checkpoint for judging how seriously governments are acting on a warming planet. COP31 opened on November 8 and is set to run through November 20, with Turkey and Australia serving as cohosts. As talks begin, diplomats are bracing for familiar fault lines, particularly over the future of fossil fuels and the scale of financial support for poorer countries.
The geopolitical backdrop is adding extra pressure. Countries are still dealing with the economic and security fallout from the war in Iran, which has destabilized parts of the Middle East and contributed to global energy price spikes. That context is likely to sharpen disputes over how quickly nations can move away from oil, gas, and coal—and who should pay for the transition.
The meeting is also unfolding without a formal United States delegation for the second consecutive year. President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement earlier this year and is now in the process of exiting the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the treaty framework that grants nations official standing in the negotiations. The absence of one of the world’s largest historical emitters has left a diplomatic gap at a moment when momentum is already fragile.
Meanwhile, the central benchmark established under the Paris Agreement—limiting warming to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels—looks increasingly out of reach. In September, the UN Environment Programme said the world is on track to overshoot that threshold, “likely within the next few years.” That grim assessment hangs over the Antalya talks, intensifying calls for faster emissions cuts even as many governments remain locked into fossil-based energy systems.
Finance is expected to be another defining battleground. Two years ago, governments agreed to aim for mobilizing 136.7 billion in 2024, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Last year’s COP30 deal also set an ambition to triple adaptation funding over the same period, but adaptation finance has stayed largely flat in recent years.
Recent disasters are amplifying the urgency of those funding discussions. Earlier this year, a glacier collapse triggered catastrophic flooding in the Himalayas, killing around 1,500 people, leaving more than 5,000 missing, and causing nearly 20 million toward Nepal’s recovery—less than 1% of the estimated cost—underscoring the gulf between the scale of impacts and the money currently available.
The role of fossil fuels in the official negotiating text will be closely watched as well. Three years ago, the final COP agreement explicitly called for a transition away from fossil fuels. But last year’s outcome avoided the term entirely, a retreat that raised concerns among advocates and many vulnerable nations. The issue is politically sensitive at COP31 given the cohosts’ own energy profiles: Australia is a major exporter of coal and liquefied natural gas, and Turkey’s power system remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, including coal.
Beyond the formal talks, COP31 president Murat Kurum, Turkey’s environment minister, is promoting side initiatives that would not appear in the final negotiated decision but could attract voluntary endorsements. One is a broad pledge aimed at making artificial intelligence “more sustainable.” The language, however, explicitly states it creates no new obligations, making enforcement unlikely. COP leaders are also pressing efforts to expand the role of electricity in the global energy system, a theme expected to surface repeatedly in parallel events.
Why it matters
COP31 arrives as the 1.5 °C goal slips closer to being breached, while climate harms intensify and funding commitments lag behind need. Decisions—or lack of them—will shape how quickly countries cut emissions and how much support vulnerable nations receive to cope with disasters already unfolding. Watch for whether the summit restores stronger language on fossil fuels and whether finance pledges move from long-term targets toward nearer-term delivery.