A 1/14 Swing in the Electorate Has Consequences: SCHADENFREUDE OF THE DAY

Nate Silver says: If you translate the governorships Democrats now hold into electoral votes, it comes to 392–146. The swing is not the D+9%-points that the pollster average had as of Tuesday morning, but D+15%-points. And, while usually midterm results predict little, he thinks “a profoundly unpopular lame duck” midterm is different https://www.natesilver.net/p/after-an-extraordinary-wave-what. Pollsters were trying really hard—massively overtrying—not to get burned by hidden Trump voters again.And so we got lots of fixes unsubtly aimed at not overrating the Democrats that produced absolutely huge state misses: 9%-points in Texas, Georgia and North Carolina. Plus, as Josh Marshall says, it is TwitterX, not Bluesky, that is the real echo chamber. Musk built a space that “made MAGA seem much more dominant than it was in the real world.” And journalists treated it as a barometer, and that is how the 2024 “vibe shift” story took hold. Bluesky users know they’re in a bubble. Gullible TwitterX users don’t. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/we-didnt-know-until-this-day-twitter-was-the-echo-chamber-all-along. And Ron Wyden’s one-word victory statement is “Subpoenas”. Robert Garcia’s two words are “Lawyer up”. But remember: Democrats are only somewhat less disliked than Republicans: favorability 47–53, against the GOP’s 41–59. Yes, a number of the Democratic-unfavorables are from Democrats who wish their politicians had not gotten into such a defensive cringe when they got the moral wind knocked out of them by actually losing the congressional popular vote in 2024. But still. The big straw in the wind that made me sit up and take notice, as I said before https://braddelong.substack.com/p/well-that-was-a-thing-bullet-dodged: Yet by then it had been clear for two hours and more that there was no substantial polling error undercounting Republicans: that instead of polls being D+9 in a D+5 electorate polls were D+9 in a D+13 (UPDATE: D+15%-points)electorate. And yet Fox News (and Twitter) watchers were not aware of that fact. Decoding Fox News: https://x.com/DecodingFoxNews/status/2118318128149000528: ‘A thread 🧵If you wanted to watch seven hours of Fox News personalities losing their ever-loving minds on election night but don't want to waste seven hours of your life I've condensed it for you. Hour 1 - DENIAL - They had no idea what was coming… NBC News:https://bsky.app/profile/nbcnews.com/post/3mzinlohqsg2y: ‘A day after Democrats won the House majority, Speaker Mike Johnson told his staff in a phone call this morning he will not not stay on as Republican leader in the new Congress, according to four sources on the call.<nbcnews.to/4z4BGRd>… E. Perkins: ‘Huh, I would have assumed he wouldn't have seen the news yet… Republican Speaker Mike Johnson: https://www.instagram.com/reel/Dc4-1U8oHFl/?hl=en: ‘These Democrats, Y’all. Impeachment’s not even the big concern. They [the Democrats] will turn ever committee in Congress into an investigative body. They will go after the President’s family, the cabinet, his donors, his friends. Half of you in this room will be targeted. I run the protection program. OK? I’m going to take care of you. We’re going to win. We’re going to win the midterm. Right?…