Economic Theories
- Economic Theories · 30/10/2026
The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Fourth quarter of 2026
Headline and core inflation expectations have been revised upward, owing primarily to renewed energy price pressures. - Economic Theories · 30/10/2026
Main findings from the ECB’s recent contacts with non-financial companies
Prepared by Davide Fantino, Alex Melemenidis, Richard Morris, Zsuzsanna Riedel and Moreno Roma This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB… - Economic Theories · 29/10/2026
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by The Bank of Nova Scotia
An official website of the United States Government Official websites use .govA.govwebsite belongs to an official government organization in the United States. - Economic Theories · 28/10/2026
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 10 – 2 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds… - Economic Theories · 27/10/2026
The euro area bank lending survey - Third quarter of 2026
In the bank lending survey BLS for the third quarter of 2026, euro area banks reported a further net tightening of credit standards for loans or credit lines to firms… - Economic Theories · 27/10/2026
Indicators for Core CPI
Core inflation indicators -- obtained by removing transitory disturbances and institutional factors from the actual movements observed in the consumer prices -- are frequently used for inflation analysis. - Economic Theories · 26/10/2026
Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area - Third quarter of 2026
This report presents the main results of the 40th round of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises SAFE in the euro area, which was conducted between 26… - Economic Theories · 26/10/2026
Tax Productivity and Economic Development: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Analysis -- by Radhika Goyal, Anders Jensen, David Lagakos, Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Yuntian Zhao
This paper examines the role of government capacity to collect taxes in driving economic development. - Economic Theories · 26/10/2026
Losing Their Religion -- by Richard Murphy, Shqiponja Telhaj
This paper studies whether governments can change social norms that constrain women’s education and work, and through which mechanism. - Economic Theories · 26/10/2026
Insuring Landlords -- by Thomas Bézy, Antoine B. Levy, Timothy McQuade
This paper shows that insuring landlords against non-payment risk can improve housing access and upward geographic mobility for fragile tenants. - Economic Theories · 26/10/2026
We Just Created More Than 1,000 Synthetic Controls To Study California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage -- by Jeffrey Clemens, Olivia Edwards, Jonathan Meer, Joshua D. Nguyen
Synthetic control methods hold the promise of identifying a credible counterfactual by closely reproducing pretreatment outcome paths. - Economic Theories · 26/10/2026
College Success: Understanding the Roles of Financial Aid, Loans, Preparation, and Incentives -- by Douglas N. Harris, Christopher R. Taber, Alan Yang
Over the past four decades, the earnings gap between college graduates and non-graduates has widened substantially, prompting interest in policies aimed at promoting higher education among low-income students. - Economic Theories · 26/10/2026
Implications of Policy Interventions on Eliminating Gender Gaps -- by Carla Varona Cervantes, Russell Cooper
This paper studies policy interventions intended to eliminate gender differences in labor market outcomes, principally wages. - Economic Theories · 23/10/2026
Financial System Report (October 2026)
In global and domestic financial markets, the expansion in global AI-related demand had the effect of improving market sentiment, although uncertainties remained high over the situation in the Middle East. - Economic Theories · 22/10/2026
Developments in Real Exports and Real Imports
In order to assess the developments in exports and imports consistently with real GDP, it is useful to look at those developments on a real-value basis, after excluding the effects of price fluctuations. - Economic Theories · 20/10/2026
New Study Finds Automation-Led Growth Hinges on Financing Capital Demand as Much as Technology
A new task-based model finds automation’s growth boost hinges on capital accumulation and saving responses, not just technology. Fixed saving sharply limits growth and hits poorer households. - Economic Theories · 20/10/2026
New NBER Paper Finds Separating Immigration’s Labor and Fiscal Effects Can Misstate Who Gains and Loses
An NBER working paper finds immigration’s effects on natives hinge on both labor markets and public budgets, with outcomes varying by country. With recent skill mixes, welfare rises in most OECD economies. - Economic Theories · 20/10/2026
arXiv Launches arXivLabs Program to Let External Developers Build and Test New Features on Its Platform
arXivLabs lets external developers and partners build and share new features within arXiv, under rules for openness, quality, and user privacy. - Economic Theories · 20/10/2026
arXiv Launches arXivLabs to Let External Developers Build and Test New Features Directly on Its Platform
arXiv has launched arXivLabs, enabling external developers and organizations to build and test new features on the arXiv site, guided by openness and privacy standards. - Economic Theories · 20/10/2026
arXiv Launches arXivLabs to Let External Developers Build and Test Experimental Features on Its Platform
arXiv is launching arXivLabs, a framework for vetted outside collaborators to build and test experimental features on the site under standards for openness, quality and user privacy. - Economic Theories · 20/10/2026
arXiv Launches arXivLabs to Let Outside Developers Build and Test New Features on Its Platform
arXiv has launched arXivLabs, enabling outside collaborators to build and test new features on the arXiv site, guided by openness, quality, and privacy rules. - Economic Theories · 20/10/2026
arXiv Launches arXivLabs Framework to Bring Third-Party Features Directly to Its Platform
arXiv has launched arXivLabs, a framework for external partners to build and ship features on the site, emphasizing openness, quality, and strong user privacy. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
New Study Finds Individual Loan Officers Can Rival Big Banks in Shaping Consumer Finance Market Power
New research finds mortgage intermediaries kept over 60% of GSE fee waivers meant for lower-income first-time buyers, with pass-through varying sharply by loan officer. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
Study Challenges Standard “Trade Elasticity” Metric, Suggesting Economists May Misjudge Welfare Gains from Global Trade
A new study finds standard trade “elasticity” shortcuts can misstate welfare gains by ignoring how home–foreign substitution changes with prices. Estimated sector elasticities vary with home bias. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
Study Finds Screening Tech Errors by Banks and Fintechs Can Reshape Credit Competition Through “Pool Externality”
A new model shows how banks and fintechs adopting screening tools can reshape credit markets, with correlated AI errors splitting lending into segments and skewing rates. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
Global Study of 3,400 Aquifers Finds Groundwater Pumping Often Economically Unsustainable Over Time
A global study of 3,400 aquifers finds most are being pumped faster than economically optimal, cutting long-run welfare by trillions. Some common rights and subsidy rules worsen inefficiency. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
Economists Unveil Model Showing How Fed Decisions Shift Global Risk Appetite and Jolt Markets
A new model shows how Federal Reserve tightening can strengthen the dollar, erode arbitrageurs’ net worth and raise global risk premia, moving assets worldwide. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
Foreign Aid Is a Marketplace of Competing Motives—Separating Why We Give from How It Works
Foreign aid mixes competing motives, from poverty reduction to donor interests and global public goods. Clearer aims and evidence-driven delivery can strengthen state capacity and impact. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
New Study Warns Survey Rating Scales Can Distort Well-Being and Economic Research Findings
A new framework uses calibration questions to correct survey “scale-use heterogeneity,” showing respondents’ scale mappings are near-linear. The method can shift effect sizes in life satisfaction analyses. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
Study Finds China’s Carbon Market May Be Boosting Output—and Emissions—at Its Most Efficient Coal Plants
Evidence suggests China’s rate-based national carbon market has spurred higher output and emissions at efficient coal plants, potentially worsening local air pollution. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
Randomized Study Finds Supportive Coach Texts Boost Adult High School Student Persistence Toward Graduation
Supportive text messages from coaches boosted adult high school graduation rates in a randomized study, with the biggest gains among students paired with experienced coaches. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
U.S. Budget Outlook Hinges on Volatile Health Spending, a Line Item That Keeps Rewriting Deficit Forecasts
Federal budget projections hinge on volatile health costs. If the post-2010 slowdown fades, rising medical spending could quickly widen deficits. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
Study Warns Weak Migration Regression Results May Mask True Labor-Demand Shock Impacts
New research argues standard migration regressions understate how responsive workers are by ignoring destination choices and correlated shocks across places, biasing estimates toward zero. - Economic Theories · 19/10/2026
Regulatory incentives and the structure of euro area money markets
This paper quantifies the regulatory cost of short-term money market transactions and analyses how post-global financial crisis prudential reforms shape the structure of… - Economic Theories · 18/10/2026
Economists Moll and Imas Warn AI Hype Overstates Odds of Sustained Double-Digit GDP Growth
Economists Ben Moll and Alex Imas argue that double-digit AI-driven GDP growth is extremely unlikely in advanced economies, citing bottlenecks, demand limits and adjustment frictions. - Economic Theories · 15/10/2026
Repo “Haircuts” Aren’t Cosmetic: Supervisory Data Shows How Negotiated Margins Can Spike and Spread Systemic Stress
New transaction-level research finds repo haircuts are driven less by collateral risk than by dealer balance-sheet constraints, collateral convenience yield and clients’ outside options. - Economic Theories · 15/10/2026
CBDC Holding Limits May Backfire: Research Warns Caps Can Trigger, Not Prevent, Digital Bank Runs
Research suggests CBDC wallet holding caps do more than curb bank-run risk: they also signal intended use, shaping saving and spending in complex, sometimes counterintuitive ways. - Economic Theories · 14/10/2026
The heterogeneous bank lending channel of monetary policy
How does heterogeneity in banks’ interest-rate risk exposure shape monetary policy transmission? - Economic Theories · 14/10/2026
What analysts hear and why it matters for monetary policy
We introduce a novel measure of how European Central Bank ECB monetary policy is interpreted by analysts at major investment banks. - Economic Theories · 13/10/2026
Fed Releases Minutes From August–September 2026 Discount-Rate Meetings, Detailing Review of Discount Window Borrowing Costs
The Federal Reserve released minutes from Board meetings on discount rates, highlighting that the discount-window rate is set separately from the FOMC’s federal funds target. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
Michael Woodford’s Relentless Focus Helped Put Modern Monetarism Back at the Center of Monetary Policy
Economist Michael Woodford reshaped modern monetary policy theory, showing how interest-rate rules and expectations can stabilize inflation and output. His work underpins New Keynesian models and forward guidance. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
Nobel Laureate Robert E. Hall Celebrated for Research That Consistently Redefined Economic Inquiry
Economist Robert E. Hall’s Nobel Prize highlights a career of widely read, idea-driven research spanning consumption, growth, markups, supply, and policy debates. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
Research Challenges ‘Zero‑Sum’ View of Fiscal Integration, Pointing to Mutual Gains Under Credible Common Tax Backing
New research argues common debt backed by a non-defaultable shared tax can benefit both safe and risky members in a currency union, reducing crisis risk beyond simple transfers. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
Economists Unveil ‘Inverted’ Gravity Model to Back-Calculate Trade-Cost Changes Needed for Target Outcomes
Economists propose an “inverted” gravity model that calculates the trade-cost changes needed to reach specific welfare targets, yielding unique solutions and direction-specific bilateral frictions. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
Study Finds Investors Price in U.S. Supreme Court’s Ideological Tilt When Valuing Markets
New research finds investors price in the Supreme Court’s ideological tilt, not just rulings. Unexpected shifts toward conservatism signal weaker inflation and growth expectations and lower bond yields. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
Targeted Policies, Murky Results: Why Even Top Quasi-Experiments Struggle to Prove Impact
A new economics study warns targeted policies can be hard to evaluate because affected groups are small, weakening statistical power in big datasets. It proposes ex-ante power checks. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
New Study Finds Affirmative Action in Centralized College Admissions Triggers Far-Reaching “Cascade” Effects
A study of Brazil’s affirmative action admissions finds cascading seat shifts boost graduation for disadvantaged students, but wider displacement offsets much of the gains. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
New Study Shows How Strategic Complementarities Shape the Speed of Economy-Wide Adjustment
A new study shows aggregate dynamics in mean field games with strategic complementarities can be reduced to a modified single-agent control problem, clarifying when shocks persist. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
Indian Field Experiment Finds Brief, Repeated Intergroup Encounters Reduce Prejudice More Than Single Deep Ties
A field experiment in India finds that repeated work with one outgroup partner builds cross-group ties, but brief contact with many outgroup members better corrects stereotypes about strangers. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
Private Cost Signals and Reputation Effects Transform Competition in Repeated Oligopoly Output Markets, Study Finds
A new study finds firms may boost output to signal low costs in repeated quantity competition, reshaping efficiency and welfare even with many rivals, with an application to oil. - Economic Theories · 12/10/2026
Economists Warn RCTs May Fall Short in Capturing Real-World Discrimination
Economists argue randomized trials can detect individual bias but struggle to test systemic racial discrimination, and outline experimental designs that can still probe structural mechanisms. - Economic Theories · 09/10/2026
Bank of England’s Quantitative Tightening Stands Out as Inflation Stays High and Bond Markets Whipsaw
Debate is growing over the Bank of England’s “active” quantitative tightening, as critics argue gilt sales may lock in losses and raise costs for taxpayers. - Economic Theories · 09/10/2026
Bank of Japan’s IMES Releases 2026 Discussion Paper Series to Spark Research and Policy Debate
The Bank of Japan’s IMES has published its 2026 Discussion Paper Series, inviting feedback on working papers. The research reflects authors’ views, not official policy. - Economic Theories · 09/10/2026
Bank of Japan’s IMES Releases 2026 Discussion Paper Series to Spur Research and Policy Debate
Bank of Japan’s IMES has published its 2026 Discussion Paper Series to spur debate and feedback on working papers, with authors’ views not representing the bank. - Economic Theories · 08/10/2026
AI Set to Reshape Economics, Amplifying Top Research and Squeezing Routine Work
AI is set to automate routine analysis in economics, boosting top research that can access unique data and field experiments while squeezing work built on standard methods. - Economic Theories · 07/10/2026
Euro Zone Banks Pass EU Stress Tests, but Regulators Turn to High-Frequency “Depletion” Metrics to Spot Hidden Risks
Euro area banks look robust in EU stress tests, but supervisors want tools to spot risks between rounds. New indices track potential capital and profit depletion quarterly. - Economic Theories · 07/10/2026
Study Finds Euro-Area Stocks Still Dominated by Domestic Owners, Home Bias Shapes Firms’ Investment When Credit Tightens
Researchers find euro-area listed firms still have strongly domestic shareholder bases, and this home bias leaves investment more vulnerable when financial conditions tighten. - Economic Theories · 07/10/2026
Bank of Japan Sharpens Real-Time Tracking of Consumer Spending, a Key Driver of Economic Growth
The Bank of Japan’s Consumption Activity Index tracks short-term shifts in household spending using multiple goods and services data series, published monthly and quarterly. - Economic Theories · 06/10/2026
Two-Century Study of 6,000 Prizewinners Maps Academic Power Shifts—With One Field Bucking the Trend
A study of nearly 6,000 prizewinners finds top research is spreading beyond elite universities in most fields, but economics is becoming more institutionally concentrated. - Economic Theories · 05/10/2026
AI Investment Boom Fuels Capital Deepening, Reignites Debate Over Economy-Wide Productivity Gains
AI investment is lifting output per worker, but utilization-adjusted total factor productivity remains flat, suggesting capital deepening rather than an economy-wide efficiency surge.